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Analysis: COE Quota for May-July 2024 Falls Short of Expectations, Experts Weigh In

The Land Transport Authority (LTA) has announced a total of 15,104 Certificates of Entitlement (COEs) for the May-July 2024 period, marking a modest 3% increase compared to the previous February-April quota. However, this rise is not evenly distributed across all COE categories.

Category A sees a 2.9% uptick, Category B experiences a 1.2% increase, while Category C observes a notable 5.2% surge. Category D, designated for motorcycles, remains unchanged. The Open Category (Category E) witnesses a significant uptick of nearly 13%, attributed to adjustments for changes in the local taxi population and commercial vehicles under the Early Turnover Scheme.

LTA's strategy of redistributing COEs from guaranteed deregistrations contributes over 1,100 Cat A COEs and 800 Cat B COEs to the May-July 2024 quota. However, industry insiders express mixed sentiments regarding the quota.

A prominent Japanese car brand CEO remarks on the complexity of forecasting COE trends, noting the lower-than-expected quota due to a brought-forward quota. Managing directors from a multi-brand car distributor express minimal changes in various categories and anticipate stable COE premiums with no significant impact on prices.

An intriguing revelation from the official statistics accompanying LTA's announcement is the return of 448 temporary COEs (TCOEs), predominantly high-value COEs relinquished by dealers opting to forfeit their $10,000 COE deposit. This move injects $4.48 million into the COE system. Looking ahead, LTA will unveil the COE quota for August-October 2024 in July 2024, sparking anticipation and further analysis within the automotive industry.

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